Two complementary solutions
Even though the concepts are shared between “full physics” basin & petroleum systems modelling (BPSM) and Ariane, there is very little overlap.
In contrary, we believe that they work very well together at different levels.
This is our view on the similarities and differences between two complementary solutions.
“Full physics” BPSM
- “Bottom-up” modelling focusing on the evolution of entire sedimentary basins;
- Complex physics-based simulations in 1D to 3D;
- Very deterministic due to high computation time.
Ariane
- Pragmatic “top-down” asset/trap-centric approach;
- Geometry-agnostic (1D) modelling of first-order principles;
- Very interactive and fully probabilistic.
We suggest solutions to link deterministic “full physics” BPSM 1D, 2D and 3D models to probabilistic Ariane.
Touch points also exist between probabilistic BPSM and Ariane. Probabilistic BPSM results can be achieved either by simplifying the simulations or by post-processing a range of “full physics” models. Such results can be used in so-called hybrid probabilistic workflows.
BPSM followed by Ariane
Upscaling of BPSM into Ariane
- Results from one (or more) deterministic BPSM models (e.g., average overpressure) can be used as a starting point for an uncertainty distribution in Ariane for further probabilistic assessment.
- The use of 1D, 2D or 3D BPSM models however needs an upscaling of properties within an area of interest (AOI), to estimate e.g., trap charge volume and properties.
- Additional modelling observations such as migration routes and timing, leak and spill paths are essential for a justifiable assessment in Ariane.
Hybrid probabilistic workflows
Some BPSM modelling software provide solutions to extend the models into the probabilistic domain, either by simplification or by a surface response-based post processing. In our view, this is perfectly reasonable for intra-source processes until the out-of-source rock charge volume and composition. Such volumes can then very easily be taken as input for a direct trap charge modelling:
- Generate probabilistic BPSM and extract charge volume and composition output distributions for AOI;
- Adapt input distributions for charge volume and composition in Ariane accordingly;
- Continue with a probabilistic charge & seal assessment in Ariane (with or without PVT).
Solve the geology in BPSM – quantify the resources in Ariane
As a bottom line, we believe that both BPSM and Ariane have their specific role in industry workflows:
- BPSM excels at building and visualizing a model highlighting our understanding of the evolution of a sedimentary basin (including its asset to evaluate);
- Ariane excels at quantifying processes and probabilistic resources of an Exploration or Appraisal asset;
- In an optimal workflow, both BPSM and Ariane work together with transitions at various touch points.
We discuss with all major BPSM industry software providers to strengthen the link between BPSM and Ariane for complementary workflows.
Ask us for specifications on how BPSM and Ariane work together!